The Not So Remote Future

Half Gallon Quarter Acre PVR Paradise
Today Sky finally unveiled their Personal Video Recorder to an eager audience of journalists and the occasional hanger-on (i.e. us). Regular readers of this newsletter are encouraged to cast their minds back to our 22 February issue, when we dished the dirt on Australia's Foxtel IQ PVR - because, as suggested at the time, Sky are rolling out the same technology.

For the record, here's all you need to know about the Sky PVR, which will be branded My Sky:

• There's a one-off connection fee of $599 for the My Sky box - no extra monthly fee. However the box will remain the property of Sky, to be returned if you let your subscription lapse.
• My Sky will be available from December 5 - just in time for Christmas.
• My Sky only works with Sky Digital.
• Sky will initially have up to 20,000 PVRs available, so the penetration won't be huge at first
• My Sky has 160GB of hard-drive memory, enough capacity to record up to 60 hours of programming.
• The PVR comes with two tuners - in other words, you can record up to two channels at once - or watch one and record the other. You can also watch a previously-recorded programme while you're capturing two new programmes.
• In common with its electronic counterparts in Australia and the UK, the My Sky PVR doesn't skip ads but lets you fast-forward through them at up to 30 times normal speed.
• Outputs on the PVR will allow you to copy programmes to other equipment - but only in analogue format. No digital-to-digital copying via My Sky.

Sky's press release notes that "My Sky currently works for all channels listed on Sky's Electronic Programme Guide". It's a carefully worded comment, with good reason - in New Zealand the copyright for television programme listings is owned by each broadcaster, so Sky can only carry guide details for broadcasters who give their permission. It would, of course, be somewhat suicidal for broadcasters to withhold that permission - their programmes would simply cease to exist for My Sky subscribers, leading to ratings oblivion as the PVRs spread through the Sky population.

And spread they will - PVR owners become enthusiastic evangelists for this new technology, which allows PVR-equipped households to:

• pause live television
• start watching a show while it's still being recorded
• fast-forward or slo-mo through shows - live or pre-recorded!
• record two channels at once
• record programmes simply by clicking on a programme title
• record every episode of a series just by clicking once on the Series Link button
• browse shows by programme categories
• pre-book up to a week in advance

The question on many lips, especially at the news conference: will PVRs kill the 30 second commercial? We've dealt with this issue a number of times in these pages, but here's our view, in a nutshell:

With only 20,000 early adopters in the first phase, PVRs aren't going to threaten any industry. However, as the movement spreads, so will the habits of PVR users, which includes pretty widespread fast-forwarding through ads, programme promotions and any other content deemed non-essential. Likeability suddenly becomes a huge, huge benefit for TV ads - if your ads are liked (especially by the kids in the household) viewers will slow down and smell the message. Those stand-up-and-shout ads, however, suitably intrusive in traditional TV advertising, will vanish without trace into well-deserved fast-forward fadeout.

Product Placement, now better known as Branded Entertainment, as also noted in the recent past, becomes a major initiative for advertisers - a chance to be seen inside programmes, not just fleetingly in commercial breaks. And sponsorship credits, once comfortably divorced from the shows at the top and tail of ad breaks, will need to be more deeply embedded to escape ad avoidance.

PVRs are also a massive challenge for broadcasters. Typically, hit shows serve as excellent lead-in vehicles for new programmes. In today's TV world, the timeslots after Desperate Housewives or CSI are the most desirable places to occupy if you're new to the schedule. In PVR households, however, time-shifted viewing is so easy with PVRs that Desperate Housewives may not be watched until later in the evening, or the next day - and the show that followed wasn't recorded, so no amount of pre-promotion during Desperate Housewives can build an audience in retrospect.

PVRs are, however, a fabulous business tool for Sky, with the potential to reduce churn dramatically - once you've got a PVR in your household you won't give it up easily.This ain't The End Of Advertising As We Know It - but it is yet another wake-up call for advertisers and their agencies. Do people actually LIKE your ads? If not - gone by lunchtime.

Local Radio To Return?

We've been known to gripe occasionally about the homogenisation of radio, with networked brands rolling out through the country at the expense of local identity.

Now there's a glimmer of hope on the horizon: last week the Ministry of Economic Development released a Discussion Paper suggesting that additional FM frequencies for at least five new radio stations could be made available in most areas of New Zealand. Up for debate: the notion that the five stations might comprise a 'not for profit' network, two licences reserved for local area broadcasting and two licences for full commercial broadcasting.

Submissions on the Discussion Paper (we have an electronic copy, yours free via an email to newsletter@mediacom.co.nz) close on the 1st of December, with further progress as a result scheduled for 2006.

Our own view: let's make all of them local - no networking allowed. The other 300 frequencies should be enough for those who must be networked. Instead of five same-old opinions repeated in every market, let a thousand florid thoughts bloom!

Sunday On Our Minds

Well, we did have fun with the Nielsen National Readership results last week. Either our calculator or our keyboard was astray, leading us to conclude that the Sunday Star-Times had shed 30,000 readers when we should have said 20,000. And then we failed to notice the results for the Herald On Sunday - which, in our defence, were listed amongst the magazine stats, not the newspaper summary.

As our penance, let's put the record straight and share some figures on the Sunday journals:

• The Herald On Sunday, for the period January-June 2005, scored 335,000 readers 15+ across New Zealand, a strong debut for a new entrant; in comparison, the Sunday Star-Times remained top of the heap with 632,000 readers, the Sunday News 436,000 against the same demographic. We should note that these latter stats are for the full year, so add asterisks as appropriate.
• Auckland statistics tell a slightly different tale, with the Herald On Sunday read by 217,000 Aucklanders Over 10; the Sunday Star-Times appealed to 259,000 in the same city and of the same age group, the Sunday News 146,000.

It's always tempting to engage in turf warfare - who's doing better, what bragging rights belong to whom - but, for once, we'll act as peacemakers and note that Sunday papers as a category are stacking up pretty well these days, both in terms of raw numbers and if you consider all the various inserts, onserts and magazines they contain. We're not quite in the league of the UK Sunday supplements just yet but as readers we're a whole lot better served than we were a few short years ago.

DIY TV

Fancy yourself as a broadcaster? A UK company is now offering a television station in a box solution, making it possible for local television channels to be delivered over broadband for a fraction of the cost of conventional broadcasting.

For a few thousand pounds, your organisation can provide a live or on-demand local television service, delivered over a broadband connection either to a personal computer or via a set-top box to a television set.

Global Digital Broadcast can already deliver what they describe as DVD quality video, and are currently testing high-definition at 6Mbps.

Perhaps this is a suitable solution for Parliamentary TV - toss a signal onto the internet, for any who want to tune in at their leisure.

And if your CEO always fancied himself/herself as a TV host, here's a low-cost opportunity for ThemTV - without killing your marketing budget (or ruining your reputation).

Rating Word Of Mouth

The Secrets of Word-of-Mouth Marketing by George Silverman captures the nature and intensity of word-of-mouth as it impacts on your business. How do you rate?

• Minus 4: People are talking about your business and complaining about it.
• Minus 3: Customers and ex-customers go out of their way to convince other people not to do business with you.
• Minus 2: When asked, customers rant, although they don't go out of their way to bad mouth.
• Minus 1: People are not actively complaining about your product, but when they are asked, they have relatively negative things to say.
• Level 0: People use your product but are rarely asked about it. They don't volunteer their opinion.
• Plus 1: When asked, people have nice things to say about your product.
• Plus 2: When asked, customers rave. They go on and on about how wonderful your product is.
• Plus 3: At this level, customers go out of their way to convince people to use your product.
• Plus 4: Your product is being talked about continually. It's getting a considerable amount of publicity.

PS Check out the book for advice on lifting your game.